Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Uganda : 1965-1994

Kalyango, David L. (1996). Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Uganda : 1965-1994 Master's Thesis, School of Economics, The University of Queensland.

       
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Author Kalyango, David L.
Thesis Title Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Uganda : 1965-1994
School, Centre or Institute School of Economics
Institution The University of Queensland
Publication date 1996
Thesis type Master's Thesis
Total pages 77
Language eng
Subjects 1402 Applied Economics
Formatted abstract The objective of this paper is to test the export-led growth hypothesis for Uganda using time series annual data for 30 years (1965-1994) by the method of cointegration. The test includes determining whether there is any long run relationship between exports and growth with a view to determining the direction of causality. The procedure consists of establishing the time series characteristics, using the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips and Perron (PP) tests for stationarity. It is shown that exports and gross domestic product (GDP) are nonstationary in levels but stationary in first differences. The Engle-Granger (EG) and Johansen-Juselius tests for cointegration are used and the results indicate that there is no long run relationship between exports and economic growth. Using the causality test of Hsiao and Granger, it is revealed there is no cointegration and hence no causality between exports and economic growth. It is argued therefore that structural and institutional problems may have influenced the role of exports in Uganda's economy..

 
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