A Simulation Approach to Modelling Temporary Population

Elin Charles-Edwards and Bell, Martin J. (2009). A Simulation Approach to Modelling Temporary Population. In: Proceedings of: 26th International Population Conference. 26th International Population Conference, Marrakech, Morocco, (1-24). 27 Sep - 2 Oct 2009.

Author Elin Charles-Edwards
Bell, Martin J.
Title of paper A Simulation Approach to Modelling Temporary Population
Conference name 26th International Population Conference
Conference location Marrakech, Morocco
Conference dates 27 Sep - 2 Oct 2009
Proceedings title Proceedings of: 26th International Population Conference
Place of Publication Princeton, NJ
Publisher The Office of Population Research at Princeton University
Publication Year 2009
Sub-type Fully published paper
ISBN not available
Start page 1
End page 24
Total pages 24
Language eng
Abstract/Summary Conventional population estimates provided by statistical agencies for regions and localities refer to a single point in time but it is widely recognised that actual population numbers fluctuate over the course of a year. Direct measurement of temporary populations has proven prohibitively expensive, while indirect estimates based on symptomatic data have met with limited success. We propose an alternative approach based on a stochastic simulation model that couples seasonality of mobility with duration of stay and is made operational using Monte Carlo methods. Drawing on data from the Australian National Visitor Survey, we identify families of distributions fitting seasonality and duration. Random samples are then drawn from these, and combined to produce estimates of ‘Visitor Nights’ for thirteen selected municipalities. Results are promising with the synthetic estimates correlating closely with observed data from the Australian Small Area Accommodation Survey.
Subjects 1603 Demography
Keyword population numbers
stochastic simulation model
Q-Index Code EX
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Additional Notes Session 1953 "New techniques for estimating migration"

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Created: Mon, 27 Sep 2010, 09:46:38 EST by Thelma Whitbourne on behalf of Faculty of Science