The effect size in uncertainty analysis

Barendregt, Jan J. (2010) The effect size in uncertainty analysis. Value in Healh, 13 4: 388-391. doi:10.1111/j.1524-4733.2009.00686.x

Author Barendregt, Jan J.
Title The effect size in uncertainty analysis
Journal name Value in Healh   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1098-3015
Publication date 2010-06
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1111/j.1524-4733.2009.00686.x
Volume 13
Issue 4
Start page 388
End page 391
Total pages 4
Place of publication Malden, MA
Publisher Blackwell Science
Collection year 2011
Language eng
Abstract Objective:  In model-based health economic evaluation, uncertainty analysis is often done using parametric bootstrapping. This requires specifying probability distributions for the model variables that are uncertain. Methods:  The effect size of the intervention is often expressed as a relative risk, and the standard assumption for a relative risk is that it has a lognormal distribution with the natural log of the relative risk and its standard error as parameters. The problem with this assumption is that the mean of the bootstrap draws from the lognormal distribution is always higher than the relative risk. Results:  This article looks at two ways to correct for this effect and discusses their advantages and drawbacks. Both methods return a bootstrap mean equal to the relative risk, but the first returns an uncertainty interval that is narrower than the corresponding confidence interval, although the second method retains the corresponding width. Conclusions:  The article concludes that the second correction method is preferred.
Keyword Parametric bootstrap
Relative Risk
Uncertainty analysis
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ
Additional Notes Article first published online: 30 JUN 2010

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2011 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 11 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 12 times in Scopus Article | Citations
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Created: Sun, 01 Aug 2010, 00:00:18 EST