The efficiency of Australian football betting markets

Brailsford, T. J., Easton, S. A., Gray, P. K. and Gray, S. F. (1995) The efficiency of Australian football betting markets. Australian Journal of Management, 20 2: 167-196.

Author Brailsford, T. J.
Easton, S. A.
Gray, P. K.
Gray, S. F.
Title The efficiency of Australian football betting markets
Journal name Australian Journal of Management   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0312-8962
Publication date 1995
Year available 1995
Sub-type Article (original research)
Volume 20
Issue 2
Start page 167
End page 196
Total pages 30
Place of publication Sage Publications
Publisher London, United Kingdom
Language eng
Subject 150201 Finance
Abstract This paper examines the efficiency of the two major Australian football betting markets: the Australian Rugby League (ARL)FootyTAB market and the Australian Football League (AFL) Footywin market. Probit and ordered probit models are tailored to the unique structures of the markets. This circumvents some potential econometric problems, and also allows us to test betting strategies in which a bet is placed only when there is a high ex-ante probability of sucess. Our probit models are successful in predicting game outcomes in both the ARL and AFL. While several of our betting strategies generate significant profits, both in-sample and out-of-sample, we offer a number of reasons why we are cautious about interpreting these results as conclusive evidence of market inefficiency.
Keyword Market effeciency
Sports betting
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Unknown
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Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: UQ Business School Publications
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Created: Fri, 02 Jul 2010, 15:30:03 EST by Ms Susana Macanawai on behalf of Faculty of Business, Economics & Law