The effect of data sources and quality on the predictive capacity of CLIMEX models: An assessment of Teleonemia scrupulosa and Octotoma scabripennis for the biocontrol of Lantana camara in Australia

Lawson, Ben E., Day, Michael D., Bowen, Michiala, van Klinken, Riaks D. and Zalucki, Myron P. (2010) The effect of data sources and quality on the predictive capacity of CLIMEX models: An assessment of Teleonemia scrupulosa and Octotoma scabripennis for the biocontrol of Lantana camara in Australia. Biological Control, 52 1: 68-76. doi:10.1016/j.biocontrol.2009.10.001


Author Lawson, Ben E.
Day, Michael D.
Bowen, Michiala
van Klinken, Riaks D.
Zalucki, Myron P.
Title The effect of data sources and quality on the predictive capacity of CLIMEX models: An assessment of Teleonemia scrupulosa and Octotoma scabripennis for the biocontrol of Lantana camara in Australia
Formatted title
The effect of data sources and quality on the predictive capacity of CLIMEX models: An assessment of Teleonemia scrupulosa and Octotoma scabripennis for the biocontrol of Lantana camara in Australia
Journal name Biological Control   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1049-9644
Publication date 2010-01
Year available 2009
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.biocontrol.2009.10.001
Volume 52
Issue 1
Start page 68
End page 76
Total pages 9
Editor J. Brodeur
Place of publication USA
Publisher Academic Press
Collection year 2010
Language eng
Subject 9604 Control of Pests, Diseases and Exotic Species
0803 Computer Software
060808 Invertebrate Biology
C1
Abstract Understanding the effects of different types and quality of data on bioclimatic modeling predictions is vital to ascertaining the value of existing models, and to improving future models. Bioclimatic models were constructed using the CLIMEX program, using different data types – seasonal dynamics, geographic (overseas) distribution, and a combination of the two – for two biological control agents for the major weed Lantana camara L. in Australia. The models for one agent, Teleonemia scrupulosa Stål (Hemiptera: Tingidae) were based on a higher quality and quantity of data than the models for the other agent, Octotoma scabripennis Guérin-Méneville (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). Predictions of the geographic distribution for Australia showed that T. scrupulosa models exhibited greater accuracy with a progressive improvement from seasonal dynamics data, to the model based on overseas distribution, and finally the model combining the two data types. In contrast, O. scabripennis models were of low accuracy, and showed no clear trends across the various model types. These case studies demonstrate the importance of high quality data for developing models, and of supplementing distributional data with species seasonal dynamics data wherever possible. Seasonal dynamics data allows the modeller to focus on the species response to climatic trends, while distributional data enables easier fitting of stress parameters by restricting the species envelope to the described distribution. It is apparent that CLIMEX models based on low quality seasonal dynamics data, together with a small quantity of distributional data, are of minimal value in predicting the spatial extent of species distribution.
Keyword Biological control
Data sources
CLIMEX
Lantana camara
Seasonal dynamics
Teleonemia scrupulosa
Octotoma scabripennis
BIOLOGICAL-CONTROL AGENT
CLIMATE-CHANGE
HOST-RANGE
GEOGRAPHICAL-DISTRIBUTION
VERBENACEAE
HEMIPTERA
INSECTS
ACACIA
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Additional Notes Published online: 8 October 2009

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: 2010 Higher Education Research Data Collection
School of Biological Sciences Publications
Ecology Centre Publications
 
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Created: Sun, 18 Apr 2010, 00:07:06 EST