Predicting invasions in Australia by a Neotropical shrub under climate change: the challenge of novel climates and parameter estimation

van Klinken, RD, Lawson, BE and Zalucki, MP (2009) Predicting invasions in Australia by a Neotropical shrub under climate change: the challenge of novel climates and parameter estimation. Global Ecology And Biogeography, 18 6: 688-700. doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2009.00483.x


Author van Klinken, RD
Lawson, BE
Zalucki, MP
Title Predicting invasions in Australia by a Neotropical shrub under climate change: the challenge of novel climates and parameter estimation
Journal name Global Ecology And Biogeography   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1466-822X
Publication date 2009-11
Year available 2009
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2009.00483.x
Volume 18
Issue 6
Start page 688
End page 700
Total pages 13
Editor Martin T Sykes
Tim M Blackburn
David J Currie
Place of publication United Kingdom
Publisher Wiley-Blackwell Publishing
Collection year 2010
Language eng
Subject 960499 Control of Pests, Diseases and Exotic Species not elsewhere classified
050101 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
C1
Formatted abstract
Aim To test how well species distributions and abundance can be predicted following
invasion and climate change when using only species distribution and
abundance data to estimate parameters. Location Models were developed for the species’ native range in the Americas and
applied to Australia.
Methods We developed a predictive model for an invasive neotropical shrub
(Parkinsonia aculeata) using a popular ecophysiological bioclimatic modelling
technique (CLIMEX) fitted against distribution and abundance data in the
Americas. The effect of uncertainty inmodel parameter estimates on predictions in
Australia was tested. Alternative data sources were used when model predictions
were sensitive to uncertainty in parameter estimates. The resulting best-fit model
was run under two climate change scenarios.
Results Of the 19 parameters used, 9 could not be fitted using data from the native
range. However, only parameters that lowered temperature or increased moisture
requirements for growth noticeably altered the model prediction in Australia. Differences in predictions were dramatic, and reflect climates in Australia that were not represented in the Americas (novel climates). However, these poorly fitted parameters could be fitted post hoc using alternative data sources prior to predicting
responses to climate change.
Conclusions Novel climates prevented the development of a predictive model
which relied only on native-range distribution and abundance data because certain
parameters could not be fitted. In fact, predictions weremore sensitive to parameter
uncertainty than to climate change scenarios. Where uncertainty in parameter
estimates affected predictions, it could be addressed through the inclusion of alternative data sources. However, this may not always be possible, for example in the
absence of post-invasion data.
Keyword Australia
bioclimatic envelope
climate change
CLIMEX
ecophysiological
invasive species
Neotropics
Parkinsonia aculeata
species distribution models
SPECIES GEOGRAPHICAL RANGES
POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION
GLOBAL CHANGE
DISTRIBUTION MODELS
BIOLOGICAL-CONTROL
FUTURE CLIMATES
PLANT
DISTRIBUTIONS
TREE
RISK
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: 2010 Higher Education Research Data Collection
School of Biological Sciences Publications
Ecology Centre Publications
 
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Created: Wed, 10 Mar 2010, 15:01:53 EST by Hayley Ware on behalf of School of Biological Sciences