Moderation in groups: Evidence from betting on ice break-ups in Alaska

Adams, Renee and Ferreira, Daniel (2010) Moderation in groups: Evidence from betting on ice break-ups in Alaska. The Review of Economic Studies, 77 3: 882-913. doi:10.1111/j.1467-937X.2009.00594.x

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Author Adams, Renee
Ferreira, Daniel
Title Moderation in groups: Evidence from betting on ice break-ups in Alaska
Journal name The Review of Economic Studies   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1467-937X
Publication date 2010-07
Year available 2009
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1111/j.1467-937X.2009.00594.x
Volume 77
Issue 3
Start page 882
End page 913
Total pages 32
Place of publication Oxford, United Kingdom
Publisher Oxford University Press
Collection year 2011
Language eng
Subject C1
140207 Financial Economics
910402 Management
Abstract We use a large sample of guessed ice break-up dates for the Tanana River in Alaska to study differences between outcomes of decisions made by individuals versus groups. We estimate the distribution of guesses conditional on whether they were made by individual bettors or betting pools. We document two major distinctions between the two sets of guesses: (1) the distribution of guesses made by groups of bettors appears to conform more to the distribution of historical break-up dates than the distribution of guesses made by individual bettors, and (2) the distribution for groups has less mass in its tails and displays lower variability than the distribution for individuals. We argue that these two pieces of evidence are consistent with the hypothesis that group decisions are more moderate, either because groups have to reach a compromise when their members disagree or because individuals with extreme opinions are less likely to be part of a group. © 2009 The Review of Economic Studies Limited
Keyword Decision making
Economic activity
Economic analysis
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ
Additional Notes Article first published online: 24 Dec 2009

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: 2010 Higher Education Research Data Collection
UQ Business School Publications
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 14 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 15 times in Scopus Article | Citations
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Created: Fri, 05 Feb 2010, 15:45:56 EST by Karen Morgan on behalf of UQ Business School