The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projection

Wilson, Thomas G. (2007) The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projection. Journal of Population Research, 24 1: 91-117.

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Author Wilson, Thomas G.
Title The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projection
Journal name Journal of Population Research   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1443-2447
1835-9469
Publication date 2007-05
Sub-type Article (original research)
Volume 24
Issue 1
Start page 91
End page 117
Total pages 27
Place of publication Canberra, Australia
Publisher Australian Population Association
Language eng
Subject 1603 Demography
Abstract This paper examines the forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections produced from the 1960s to the early 2000s. As well as total populations, the accuracy of the following is assessed: age-sexspecific populations, the Total Fertility Rate, life expectancy at birth and net international migration. It is shown that forecasts of the 1960s and 70s were the most inaccurate; forecasts of the 1980s and later proved to be much more reliable. The paper goes on to take an alternative perspective on population forecast error through the use of an adapted percentage error measure which accounts for offsetting errors in births, deaths, net migration and the jump-off population. This measure also permits an assessment of the relative contributions of the components of demographic change to overall inaccuracy. It is shown that errors in forecasting net international migration have generally contributed most to inaccuracy followed by births and then deaths and jump-off error. ABS projections of total population are also compared to those produced using a simple naïve model. The paper concludes by arguing that the new error measure could prove valuable in other studies of population forecast accuracy.
Keyword Forecast accuracy
Population Projections
Error
Australia
Australian Bureau of Statistics
Q-Index Code C1

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Excellence in Research Australia (ERA) - Collection
School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management Publications
 
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Created: Mon, 18 Jan 2010, 11:53:33 EST by Christine Ouslinis on behalf of Faculty of Science