A long-term view of worldwide fossil fuel prices

Shafiee, Shahriar and Topal, Erkan (2010) A long-term view of worldwide fossil fuel prices. Applied Energy, 87 3: 988-1000. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.09.012


Author Shafiee, Shahriar
Topal, Erkan
Title A long-term view of worldwide fossil fuel prices
Journal name Applied Energy   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0306-2619
1872-9118
Publication date 2010-03
Year available 2009
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.09.012
Volume 87
Issue 3
Start page 988
End page 1000
Total pages 13
Place of publication Oxford, United Kingdom
Publisher Elsevier
Collection year 2011
Language eng
Subject 09 Engineering
Abstract This paper reviews a long-term trend of worldwide fossil fuel prices in the future by introducing a new method to forecast oil, natural gas and coal prices. The first section of this study analyses the global fossil fuel market and the historical trend of real and nominal fossil fuel prices from 1950 to 2008. Historical fossil fuel price analysis shows that coal prices are decreasing, while natural gas prices are increasing. The second section reviews previously available price modelling techniques and proposes a new comprehensive version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model. The third section uses the new model to forecast fossil fuel prices in nominal and real terms from 2009 to 2018. The new model follows the extrapolation of the historical sinusoidal trend of nominal and real fossil fuel prices. The historical trends show an increase in nominal/real oil and natural gas prices plus nominal coal prices, as well as a decrease in real coal prices. Furthermore, the new model forecasts that oil, natural gas and coal will stay in jump for the next couple of years and after that they will revert back to the long-term trend until 2018. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keyword Historical fossil fuel prices
Forecasting non-renewable energy price
Long-term trend reverting
Jump and dip diffusion
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ
Additional Notes Available online 14 October 2009.

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: School of Mechanical & Mining Engineering Publications
Official 2011 Collection
 
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Created: Sun, 27 Dec 2009, 00:05:25 EST