Projecting the burden of diabetes in Australia: What is the size of the matter?

Magliano, D. J., Peeters, A., Vos, T., Sicree, R., Shaw, J., Sindall, C., Haby, M., Begg, S. J. and Zimmet, P. Z. (2009) Projecting the burden of diabetes in Australia: What is the size of the matter?. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, 33 6: 540-543. doi:10.1111/j.1753-6405.2009.00450.x

Author Magliano, D. J.
Peeters, A.
Vos, T.
Sicree, R.
Shaw, J.
Sindall, C.
Haby, M.
Begg, S. J.
Zimmet, P. Z.
Title Projecting the burden of diabetes in Australia: What is the size of the matter?
Journal name Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1326-0200
Publication date 2009-12
Year available 2009
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1111/j.1753-6405.2009.00450.x
Volume 33
Issue 6
Start page 540
End page 543
Total pages 4
Editor Jeanne Daly
Place of publication Australia
Publisher Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia
Collection year 2010
Language eng
Subject C1
920499 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) not elsewhere classified
111799 Public Health and Health Services not elsewhere classified
Formatted abstract
Objective: To analyse the implications of using different methods to predict diabetes prevalence for the future.

Approach: Different methods used to predict diabetes were compared and recommendations are made.

Conclusion: We recommend that all projections take a conservative approach to diabetes prevalence prediction and present a 'base case' using the most robust, contemporary data available. We also recommend that uncertainty analyses be included in all analyses.

Implications: Despite variation in assumptions and methodology used, all the published predictions demonstrate that diabetes is an escalating problem for Australia. We can safely assume that unless trends in diabetes incidence are reversed there will be at least 2 million Australian adults with diabetes by 2025. If obesity and diabetes incidence trends, continue upwards, and mortality continues to decline, up to 3 million people will have diabetes by 2025, with the figure closer to 3.5 million by 2033. The impact of this for Australia has not been measured.
Keyword Diabetes
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: 2010 Higher Education Research Data Collection
School of Public Health Publications
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 16 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 20 times in Scopus Article | Citations
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Created: Sun, 27 Dec 2009, 00:04:56 EST