Yield forecasting for marketers

Everingham, Y., Inman-Bamber, G., Ticehurst, C., Barrett, D., Lowe, K. and McNeill, T. (2005). Yield forecasting for marketers. In: D. M. Hogarth, Proceedings of the 2005 Conference of the Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists. 27th Annual Conference Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists, Bundaberg, Queensland, Australia, (51-60). 3-6 May 2005.

Author Everingham, Y.
Inman-Bamber, G.
Ticehurst, C.
Barrett, D.
Lowe, K.
McNeill, T.
Title of paper Yield forecasting for marketers
Conference name 27th Annual Conference Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists
Conference location Bundaberg, Queensland, Australia
Conference dates 3-6 May 2005
Proceedings title Proceedings of the 2005 Conference of the Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists   Check publisher's open access policy
Place of Publication Brisbane, Australia
Publisher PK Editorial Services Pty
Publication Year 2005
Sub-type Fully published paper
ISSN 0726-0822
Editor D. M. Hogarth
Start page 51
End page 60
Total pages 10
Language eng
Abstract/Summary Marketers rely on early and accurate yield forecasts to increase industry profitability by improved forward selling strategies. Crop forecasts are required 6-7 months prior to the commencement of harvest. These forecasts need to be updated regularly during the growing season. In this paper, we describe how crop growth models and remote sensing models can be used to provide Queensland Sugar Limited with yield forecast information. An assessment demonstrating how these approaches would have performed in 'forecast mode' using historical yields for the Mackay terminal region is presented. Each method has varied strengths and weaknesses. For this region, the remote sensing model has produced more accurate yield forecasts than the crop growth model. However, the remote sensing model cannot be used until later in the growing season. Conversely, an advantage of the crop growth model is that it can be utilized much earlier in the season when marketers have more flexibility in planning. While these desktop models are still under development, and need to be benchmarked against forecasts that have been provided historically by industry, the crop and remote sensing models offer marketers advance knowledge about the size of the forthcoming crop. This information is invaluable to marketers who manage the forward sales of sugar.
Subjects 8206 Harvesting and Packing of Plant Products
Keyword Crop yield
Growth models
Remote sensing
Yield forecasting
Developed countries
Commonwealth of Nations
OECD Countries
Q-Index Code E1

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Created: Tue, 17 Nov 2009, 10:14:32 EST by Thelma Whitbourne on behalf of Sustainable Minerals Institute