Earthquake trend around Sumatra indicated by a New Implementation of LURR Method

Yin, Can, Xing, Huilin, Mora, Peter and Xu, Hehua (2008) Earthquake trend around Sumatra indicated by a New Implementation of LURR Method. Pure and Applied Geophysics Special Issue: Microscopic and Macroscopic Simulation: Towards Predictive Modeling of the Earthquake Process., 165 3-4: 723-736.


Author Yin, Can
Xing, Huilin
Mora, Peter
Xu, Hehua
Title Earthquake trend around Sumatra indicated by a New Implementation of LURR Method
Journal name Pure and Applied Geophysics Special Issue: Microscopic and Macroscopic Simulation: Towards Predictive Modeling of the Earthquake Process.  (ERA 2012 Listed)    (ERA 2010 Rank C)   Check publisher's open access policy
Publication date 2008-04
Sub-type Article
DOI 10.1007/s00024-008-0322-z
Volume number 165
Issue number 3-4
ISSN 0033-4553
1420-9136
Start page 723
End page 736
Total pages 13
Editor X. C. Yin
A. Donnellan
M. Matsu'ura,
Peter R. Mora
Place of publication Basel, Switzerland
Publisher Birkhauser Verlag
Collection year 2009
Language eng
Subject 040407 Seismology and Seismic Exploration
970104 Expanding Knowledge in the Earth Sciences
C1
Abstract The current implementation of LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) theory has shown promise in intermediate to short-term earthquake forecasting through past practice, but has also met difficulties at the same time. In this paper a new implementation of LURR method is presented to address one of the problems. The major change in the new implementation is that LURR values will result from a calculated maximum faulting orientation (MFO) instead of any focal mechanism selected by users. After comparison with the world stress map, the calculated MFO has been found to be in good agreement with the observation from the regional tectonic stress regime. The MFO pattern in the Indonesia region has a special feature which may be related to the unique subduction complexity. The MFO pattern in the Sumatra region in general is different from that in the Java region after the 2004 M 9.0 Sumatra Andaman Islands earthquake. This phenomenon may be supported by the evidence of the recent observation that a section in the southern part of the Sumatran arc is locked. Furthermore, the MFO pattern before the 2004 main shock is different from that after the event. Retrospective examination of the Indonesia region by means of this implementation can produce significant LURR anomaly not only prior to the 2004 main shock but also before the 2006 M 7.7 South Java earthquake. Therefore future great earthquakes might favorably be forecasted if the LURR anomaly detected by MFO method could be considered a precursor.
Keyword LURR
earthquake prediction
Sumatra
MFO
critical instability
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code

 
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Created: Wed, 08 Apr 2009, 19:47:48 EST by Tracy Paroz on behalf of Earth Systems Science Computational Centre