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A Bayesian Mixture Model for Estimating Intergeneration Chronic Toxicity
Rhodes, Jonathan R., Grist, Eric P. M., Kwok, Kevin W. H. and Leung, Kenneth M. Y. (2008-11-01) A Bayesian Mixture Model for Estimating Intergeneration Chronic Toxicity. Environmental Science & Technology, 42 21: 8108-8114.
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| Author(s) |
Rhodes, Jonathan R.
Grist, Eric P. M.
Kwok, Kevin W. H.
Leung, Kenneth M. Y.
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| Title |
A Bayesian Mixture Model for Estimating Intergeneration Chronic Toxicity
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| Journal name |
Environmental Science & Technology
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| Publication date |
2008-11-01
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| Volume number |
42
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| Issue number |
21
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| ISSN |
0013-936X
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| Start page |
8108
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| End page |
8114
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| Total pages |
7
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| Editor(s) |
Jerald Schnoor
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| Place of publication |
Washingto DC, USA
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| Publisher |
American Chemical Society
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| Collection year |
2009
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| Language |
eng
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| Subject |
C1
0502 Environmental Science and Management
9608 Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity
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| Formatted abstract |
Understanding toxic effects on biological populations across generations is crucial for determining the long-term consequences of chemical pollution in aquatic environments. As a consequence, there is considerable demand for suitable statistical methods to analyze complex multigeneration experimental data. We demonstrate the application of a Bayesian mixture model (with random-effects) to assess the effect of intergeneration copper (Cu) exposure on the reproductive output of the copepod, Tigriopus japonicus, using experimental data across three generations. The model allowed us to appropriately specify the nonstandard statistical distribution of the data and account for correlations among data points. The approach ensured more robust inferences than standard statistical methods and, because of the model’s mechanistic formulation, enabled us to test more subtle hypotheses. We demonstrate intergeneration Cu exposure effects on both components of reproductive output (1) the ovisac maturation rate, and (2) the number of nauplii per ovisac. Current and parent generation Cu exposures negatively affected current generation reproductive output. However, in terms of reproductive output, there was also some evidence for adaptation to parental Cu exposures, but with an associated cost under Cu concentrations different from the parental exposure. Bayesian mixture and random-effects models present a robust framework for analyzing data of this kind and for better understanding chemical toxicity.
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| Keyword(s) |
ZERO-INFLATED POISSON
DAPHNIA-MAGNA
COPEPOD TIGRIOPUS
MATERNAL TRANSFER
FITNESS COSTS
RESISTANCE
TOLERANCE
ACCLIMATION
CADMIUM
ADAPTATION
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