Randomised controlled trial of mammographic screening in women from age 40: predicted mortality based on surrogate outcome measures

Moss, S., Waller, M., Anderson, T. J. and Cuckle, H. (2005) Randomised controlled trial of mammographic screening in women from age 40: predicted mortality based on surrogate outcome measures. British Journal of Cancer, 92 5: 955-960. doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6602395


Author Moss, S.
Waller, M.
Anderson, T. J.
Cuckle, H.
Title Randomised controlled trial of mammographic screening in women from age 40: predicted mortality based on surrogate outcome measures
Journal name British Journal of Cancer   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0007-0920
1532-1827
Publication date 2005-03
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1038/sj.bjc.6602395
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 92
Issue 5
Start page 955
End page 960
Total pages 6
Place of publication London, United Kingdom
Publisher Nature Publishing Group
Language eng
Abstract A trial in the UK to study the effect on mortality from breast cancer of invitation for annual mammography from the age of 40–41, has randomised a total of 160 921 women in the ratio 1 : 2 to the intervention and control arms. All breast cancers diagnosed in the two arms have been identified, and the histology reviewed. This paper presents the results of an interim analysis using surrogate outcome measures to compare predicted breast cancer mortality in the two arms based on 1287 cases diagnosed to 31.12.1999. Due to earlier diagnosis, there is currently an 8% excess of invasive breast cancers in the intervention arm. The ratio of predicted deaths at 10 years in the intervention arm relative to the control arm, adjusted for this excess diagnosis, ranges from 0.89 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78–1.01) to 0.90 (95% CI 0.80–1.01). Screening from age 40 may result in a lower reduction in breast cancer mortality than that observed in other trials including women below age 50. This analysis based on surrogate outcome measures suggests that a reduction in breast cancer mortality may be observed in this trial. However, a number of assumptions have been necessary and firm conclusions must await the analysis of observed mortality from breast cancer.
Keyword Mammography
Screening
Age
Surrogate
Mortality
Breast
Q-Index Code C1
Additional Notes Written for the Trial Management Group

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Excellence in Research Australia (ERA) - Collection
Centre for Military and Veterans' Health Publications
 
Versions
Version Filter Type
Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 28 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 34 times in Scopus Article | Citations
Google Scholar Search Google Scholar
Created: Fri, 03 Apr 2009, 10:04:33 EST by Ms Karen Naughton on behalf of Centre for Australian Military & Veterans' Health