A dynamic analysis of the impact of uncertainty on import- and/or export-led growth: The experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers

Mahadevan, Renuka and Suardi, Sandy (2008-03) A dynamic analysis of the impact of uncertainty on import- and/or export-led growth: The experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers. Japan and the World Economy, 20 2: 155-174.


Author(s) Mahadevan, Renuka
Suardi, Sandy
Title A dynamic analysis of the impact of uncertainty on import- and/or export-led growth: The experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers
Journal name Japan and the World Economy
Publication date 2008-03
Sub-type Article
Year available 2007
Volume number 20
Issue number 2
ISSN 0922-1425
Start page 155
End page 174
Total pages 20
Editor(s) R. Dekle
Y. Hamao
Place of publication Amsterdam, Netherlands
Publisher Elsevier BV, North Holland
Collection year 2008
Language eng
Subject 340403 Time-Series Analysis
340299 Applied Economics not elsewhere classified
720301 Trade policy
C1
Abstract Increasing integration of the Asian Tigers with the world economy through trade has exposed their income and trade to greater uncertainty and volatility. This paper models uncertainty in trade and income and re-examines the stability of the trade-growth nexus for Japan and the Asian Tigers in a dynamic framework. We find that in a volatile environment Japan's GDP growth is only import-led while Hong Kong's GDP growth is both export and import growth-led. On the other hand, incorporating uncertainty breaks the causal link between Korea's GDP growth and trade but it does not affect Taiwan's mutually causative relationship between GDP growth, with exports and imports. Lastly, the varied qualitative and quantitative impact of volatility in imports and exports on income growth among the Asian Tigers provides further thought for policy making.
Keyword(s) Trade-led growth
Uncertainty
GARCH
 
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2006.10.001  
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http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09221425  
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