Probabilistic regional population forecasts: The example of Queensland, Australia

Wilson, Thomas G. and Bell, Martin (2007) Probabilistic regional population forecasts: The example of Queensland, Australia. Geographical Analysis, 39 1: 1-25. doi:10.1111/j.1538-4632.2006.00693.x

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Author Wilson, Thomas G.
Bell, Martin
Title Probabilistic regional population forecasts: The example of Queensland, Australia
Journal name Geographical Analysis   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0016-7363
Publication date 2007-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1111/j.1538-4632.2006.00693.x
Volume 39
Issue 1
Start page 1
End page 25
Total pages 25
Editor Alan T. Murray
Place of publication Malden, USA
Publisher Blackwell Publishing
Collection year 2008
Language eng
Subject 1603 Demography
Abstract The variability of demographic trends at the subnational scale, particularly internal and international migration, renders subnational population forecasting more difficult than at the national scale. Illustrating the uncertainty of the demographic future for subnational regions is therefore a crucial element of any set of subnational population forecasts. However, subnational forecasts are currently prepared using deterministic models, which fail to properly address the issue of demographic uncertainty. The traditional high, medium, and low variants approach employed by many national statistical offices poses a number of problems. Probabilistic population forecasting models have the potential to overcome many of these problems, but these models have so far been limited to national-level forecasts. This article reports a first attempt to implement a probabilistic approach to subnational population forecasting using a biregional projection framework. The article sets out the forecasting framework, outlines the approach adopted to formulate each of the assumptions, and presents probabilistic forecasts for 2002-2051 for Queensland and the rest of Australia. The forecasts show a two-thirds probability that Queensland's population in 2051 will be between 5.4 and 7.7 million while the same range for the rest of the country is 18.6 and 22.7 million. The forecasts quantify to what extent greater uncertainty exists about the demographic future at the subnational compared with the national scale.
Keyword Geography
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

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Created: Wed, 30 Apr 2008, 15:14:00 EST by Deirdre Timo on behalf of School of Geography, Planning & Env Management