A Bayesian approach to estimate the age-specific prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni and implications for schistosomiasis control

Raso, G., Vounatsou, P., McManus, D. P., N'Goran, E. K. and Utzinger, J. (2007) A Bayesian approach to estimate the age-specific prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni and implications for schistosomiasis control. International Journal For Parasitology, 37 13: 1491-1500.


Author Raso, G.
Vounatsou, P.
McManus, D. P.
N'Goran, E. K.
Utzinger, J.
Title A Bayesian approach to estimate the age-specific prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni and implications for schistosomiasis control
Journal name International Journal For Parasitology   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0020-7519
Publication date 2007
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.ijpara.2007.05.004
Volume 37
Issue 13
Start page 1491
End page 1500
Total pages 10
Editor B. Crabb
Place of publication Oxford
Publisher Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd
Collection year 2008
Language eng
Subject C1
321202 Epidemiology
730101 Infectious diseases
Abstract Models that accurately estimate the age-specific infection prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni can be useful for schistosomiasis control programmes, particularly with regard to whether mass drug administration or selected treatment should be employed. We developed a Bayesian formulation of an immigration-death model that has been previously proposed, which used maximum likelihood inference for estimating the age-specific S. mansoni prevalence in a dataset from Egypt. For comparative purposes, we first applied the Bayesian formulation of the immigration-death model to the dataset from Egypt. We further analysed data obtained from a cross-sectional parasitological survey that determined the infection prevalence of S. mansoni among 447 individuals in a village in Cote d'Ivoire. Three consecutive stool samples were collected from each participant and analysed by the Kato-Katz technique. In the Cote d'Ivoire study, the observed S. mansoni infection prevalence was 41.6% and varied with age. The immigration-death model was able to correctly predict 50% of the observed age group-specific point prevalences. The model presented here can be utilized to estimate S. mansoni community infection prevalences, which in turn helps in the strategic planning of schistosomiasis control. (c) 2007 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keyword Parasitology
age-prevalence prediction
Bayesian statistics
immigration-death model
Kato-Katz technique
schistosomiasis
Schistosoma mansoni
Rural Cote-divoire
Day-to-day
Egg-count
Infection
Community
Epidemiology
Intensity
Praziquantel
Patterns
Model
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code

 
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Created: Mon, 18 Feb 2008, 15:23:21 EST