The use of models in the estimation of disease epidemiology

Kruijshaar, Michelle E., Barendregt, Jan J. and Hoeymans, Nancy (2002) The use of models in the estimation of disease epidemiology. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 80 8: 622-628.

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Author Kruijshaar, Michelle E.
Barendregt, Jan J.
Hoeymans, Nancy
Title The use of models in the estimation of disease epidemiology
Journal name Bulletin of the World Health Organization   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0042-9686
Publication date 2002
Sub-type Article (original research)
Open Access Status File (Publisher version)
Volume 80
Issue 8
Start page 622
End page 628
Total pages 7
Place of publication Geneva 27
Publisher World Health Organization
Language eng
Abstract Objective To explore the usefulness of incidence-prevalence-mortality (IPM) models in improving estimates of disease epidemiology. Methods Two artificial and four empirical data sets (for breast, prostate, colorectal, and stomach cancer) were employed in IPM models. Findings The internally consistent artificial data sets could be reproduced Virtually identically by the models. Our estimates often differed considerably from the empirical data sets, especially for breast and prostate cancer and for older ages. Only for stomach cancer did the estimates approximate to the data, except at older ages. Conclusion There is evidence that the discrepancies between model estimates and observations are caused both by data inaccuracies and past trends in incidence or mortality. Because IPM models cannot distinguish these effects, their use in improving disease estimates becomes complicated. Expert opinion is indispensable in assessing whether the use of these models improves data quality or, inappropriately, removes the effect of trends.
Keyword Epidemiologic Research Design
Models, Theoretical
Reproducibility Of Results
Breast Neoplasms/epidemiology
Colorectal Neoplasms/epidemiology
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Prostatic Neoplasms/epidemiology
Stomach Neoplasms/epidemiology
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Excellence in Research Australia (ERA) - Collection
School of Public Health Publications
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 22 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
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Created: Fri, 21 Sep 2007, 10:39:09 EST