Diverging trends in colorectal cancer morbidity and mortality. Earlier diagnosis comes at a price

Bonneux, L., Barendregt, J. J., Looman, C. W. and van der Maas, P. J. (1995) Diverging trends in colorectal cancer morbidity and mortality. Earlier diagnosis comes at a price. European Journal of Cancer, 31 10: 1665-1671. doi:10.1016/0959-8049(95)00299-X


Author Bonneux, L.
Barendregt, J. J.
Looman, C. W.
van der Maas, P. J.
Title Diverging trends in colorectal cancer morbidity and mortality. Earlier diagnosis comes at a price
Journal name European Journal of Cancer   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0959-8049
Publication date 1995-09
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/0959-8049(95)00299-X
Volume 31
Issue 10
Start page 1665
End page 1671
Total pages 7
Language eng
Abstract In developed countries, time trends in the incidence of colorectal cancer differ markedly from trends in mortality. This study sought to explain simultaneously changes in both colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. Data on first admissions, interventions and outcome from the national hospital registry over the period 1978-1989 and data on mortality from Statistics Netherlands over the same period were analysed by age-period models and subsequently entered in a Markov chain model, simulating disease history from first admission to death. Over the period 1978-1989, age adjusted numbers of first admissions and interventions increased by 37% and 32%, respectively, while mortality declined by 8%. For every 100 patients admitted between 1987 and 1989, 13 more will survive compared with 1978-1980. Of these, 3 will be saved by improving results of primary treatment but the other 10 will survive their diagnosis for the subsequent 10 years. Although progress in treatment has been made, therapeutic improvement can account only for the smaller part of the divergence between morbidity and mortality. Increased diagnostic activity, raising incidence and lowering mortality simultaneously, is the most likely cause of the unexplained divergence.
Keyword Adult
Age Distribution
Colonic Neoplasms/ epidemiology/mortality
Computer Simulation
Female
Hospitalization/trends
Humans
Incidence
Male
Middle Aged
Models, Statistical
Netherlands/epidemiology
Rectal Neoplasms/ epidemiology/mortality
Sex Distribution
Survival Rate
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Unknown

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: School of Public Health Publications
 
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Created: Fri, 21 Sep 2007, 10:40:42 EST