Predicting Criminal Recidivism in Paroled Queensland Prisoners: Findings From a Multinomial Ordered Probit Model

Worthington, Andrew, Higgs, Helen and Edwards, Glyn (1999) Predicting Criminal Recidivism in Paroled Queensland Prisoners: Findings From a Multinomial Ordered Probit Model. Discussion Paper No 263, Department of Economics, The University of Queensland.

Attached Files (Some files may be inaccessible until you login with your UQ eSpace credentials)
Name Description MIMEType Size Downloads
DP263Oct99.pdf DP263Oct99.pdf Click to show the corresponding preview/stream application/pdf 374.11KB 4763
Author Worthington, Andrew
Higgs, Helen
Edwards, Glyn
Title Predicting Criminal Recidivism in Paroled Queensland Prisoners: Findings From a Multinomial Ordered Probit Model
School, Department or Centre Department of Economics
Institution The University of Queensland
Report Number Discussion Paper No 263
Publication date 1999-10-01
Subject 390405 Correctional Theory and Services; Penology
Abstract/Summary A multinomial ordered probit model is used to predict post-release performance in a sample of Queensland prisoners released between January 1992 and December 1994. Post-release performance is defined in terms of the seriousness of parole breaches and/or reoffences over the length of the parole period or until April 1996. The paper examines two issues. First, it evaluates the statistical significance of a number of custodial and socioeconomic variables on the likelihood of a parole breach or reoffence. Factors analysed include family composition, age, occupation, ethnicity, the number of events in custody, the number of prison violations and the length of sentence of the most recent custodial episode. Second, the study compares the role of these factors in determining either breaches of parole or the more serious outcome of readmittance through criminal activity. All other things being equal, the elasticity of readmission with respect to the set of explanatory variables varies markedly according to whether readmission is through a parole breach or through actual recidivist behaviour.
Keyword Recidivism
Prisoners - Queensland
Parole
References Avio, K.L. (1998) 'The economics of prisons', European Journal of Law and Economics, 6(2), 143-175. Becker, G.S. (1968) 'Crime and punishment: An economic approach', Journal of Political Economy, 76(2), 169-217. Benda, B.B. and Tollett C.L. (1999) 'A study of recidivism of serious and persistent offenders among adolescents', Journal of Criminal Justice, 27(2), 111-116. Bodman, P. and Maultby, C. (1997) 'Crime, punishment and deterrence in Australia: A further empirical investigation', International Journal of Social Economics, 24, 884-901. Brennan, P.A. and Mednick, S.A. (1994) 'Learning theory approach to the deterrence of criminal recidivism', Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 103(3), 430-440. Broadhurst, R. and Maller, R. (1990) 'The recidivism of prisoners released for the first time: Reconsidering the effectiveness problem', Australia-New Zealand Journal of Criminology, 23(1), 88-97. Buchanan, C. and Hartley, P.R. (1992) Criminal Choice: The Economic Theory of Crime and its Implications for Crime Control, Centre for Independent Studies, Sydney. Caulkins, J., Cohen J., Gorr W. and Wei J. (1996) 'Predicting criminal recidivism: a comparison of neutral networks with statistical methods', Journal of Criminal Justice, 24(3), 227-240. Criminal Justice Commission (1998) Criminal Justice System Monitor, April 1998, Vol. 3, Criminal Justice Commission, Brisbane. Dembo, R., Turner, G., Sue, C.C., Schmeidler, J., Borderne, P., and Manning, D. (1995) 'Predictors of recidivism to a juvenile assessment center', International Journal of the Additions, 30(11), 1425-1452. DiIulio, J.J. (1996) 'Help wanted: Economists, crime and public policy', Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10(1), 3-24. Doren, D.M. (1998) 'Recidivism base rates, predictions of sex offender recidivism, and the sexual predator commitment law', Behavioural Sciences and the Law, 16(1), 97-114. Edwards, G. (1998) Readmission Rates among Inmates Released from Queensland Prisons: Identifying High Risk Groups. Paper presented to the Economics, Finance and International Competitiveness (EFIC) Seminar Series, Queensland University of Technology. Garoupa, N. (1996) 'Prison, parole and the Criminal Justice Act 1991', Research in Law and Economics 18. Garoupa, N. (1997) 'The theory of optimal law enforcement', Journal of Economic Surveys 11, 267-295. Kim, I-J. (1993) 'An economic analysis of recidivism among drug offenders', Southern Economic Journal, 60(1), 169-183. Lattimore, K. Visher, C. and Linster, R. (1995) 'Predicting rearrest for violence among serious youthful offenders', Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 32(1), 54-83. Leiber, M.J. and Mawhorr, T.L. (1995) 'Evaluating the use of social skills training and employment with delinquent youth', Journal of Criminal Justice, 23(2), 127-141. Lewis, D.E. (1986) 'The general deterrent effect of longer sentences', British Journal of Criminology, 26(1), 47-62. Miceli, T.J. (1994) 'Prison and parole: Minimising the cost of non-monetary sanctions as deterrents,' Research in Law and Economics 61, 197-211. Mukherjee, S. (1999) 'Ethnicity and crime' Australian Institute of Criminology: Trends and Issues in Crime and Criminal Justice, No. 117. Piehl, A.M. and DiIulio J.J. (1995) 'Does prison pay? Revisited', Bookings Review, 13(1), 21-25. Schmidt, P. and Witte A.D. (1989) 'Predicting criminal recidivism using split population survival time data', Journal of Econometrics, 40(1), 141-159. Sickles, R.C. Schmidt P. and Witte A.D. (1979) 'An application of the simultaneous Tobit model: A study of the determinants of criminal recidivism', Journal of Economics and Business, 31(3) 166-171. Weatherburn, D. (1992) 'Economic adversity and crime', Australian Institute of Criminology: Trends and Issues in Crime and Criminal Justice, No. 40. Weatherburn, D. and Lind, B. (1985) 'Poverty, parenting, peers and crime-prone neighbourhoods', Australian Institute of Criminology: Trends and Issues in Crime and Criminal Justice, No. 85.

Document type: Department Technical Report
Collection: Discussion Papers (School of Economics)
 
Versions
Version Filter Type
Citation counts: Google Scholar Search Google Scholar
Access Statistics: 1619 Abstract Views, 4944 File Downloads  -  Detailed Statistics
Created: Thu, 05 Feb 2004, 10:00:00 EST by Belinda Weaver (EA)