Sensitivity of conservation planning to different approaches to using predicted species distribution data

Wilson, Kerrie A., Westphal, Michael I., Possingham, Hugh P. and Elith, Jane (2005) Sensitivity of conservation planning to different approaches to using predicted species distribution data. Biological Conservation, 122 1: 99-112. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2004.07.004


Author Wilson, Kerrie A.
Westphal, Michael I.
Possingham, Hugh P.
Elith, Jane
Title Sensitivity of conservation planning to different approaches to using predicted species distribution data
Journal name Biological Conservation   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0006-3207
Publication date 2005-03-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.biocon.2004.07.004
Volume 122
Issue 1
Start page 99
End page 112
Total pages 14
Place of publication Essex, United Kingdom
Publisher Elseiver B.V.
Collection year 2005
Language eng
Subject 0502 Environmental Science and Management
050205 Environmental Management
050206 Environmental Monitoring
050209 Natural Resource Management
0501 Ecological Applications
Abstract The main role of conservation planning is to design reserve networks to protect biodiversity in situ. Research within the field of conservation planning has focused on the development of theories and tools to design reserve networks that protect biodiversity in an efficient and representative manner. Whilst much progress has been made in this regard, there has been limited assessment of the sensitivity of conservation planning outcomes to uncertainty associated with the datasets used for conservation planning. Predicted species distribution data are commonly used for conservation planning because the alternatives (e.g. survey data) are incomplete or biased spatially. However, there may be considerable uncertainty associated with the use of predicted species distribution data, particularly given the variety of approaches available to generate a dataset from such predictions for use in conservation planning. These approaches range from using the probabilistic data directly to using a threshold identified a priori or a posteriori to convert the probabilistic data to presence/absence data. We assess the sensitivity of conservation planning outcomes to different uses of predicted species distribution data. The resulting reserve networks differed, and had different expected species representation. The choice of approach will depend on how much risk a conservation planner is willing to tolerate and how much efficiency can be sacrificed.
Keyword Conservation planning
Uncertainty
Reserve design
Species distribution models
Biodiversity conservation
Q-Index Code C1

 
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Created: Wed, 12 Jan 2005, 10:00:00 EST by Hugh P. Possingham on behalf of Faculty of Science